History of Public Debt

What happens if a large, high-income economy, burdened with high levels of debt and an overvalued, fixed exchange rate, attempts to lower the debt and regain competitiveness? This question is of current relevance, since this is the challenge confronting Italy and Spain. Yet, as a chapter in the International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook demonstrates, a relevant historical experience exists: that of the UK between the two world wars. This proves that the interaction between attempts at "internal devaluations" and the dynamics of debt are potentially lethal. Moreover, the plight of Italy and Spain is, in many ways, worse than the UK's was. The latter, after all, could go off the gold standard; exit from the eurozone is far harder. Again, the UK had a central bank able and willing to reduce interest rates. The European Central Bank may not be able and willing to do the same for Italy and Spain.

More bad news from China?

What should one make of the indicators coming out of Beijing that have regularly fallen short of market expectations; the most recent being an August PMI — further revised downwards this morning – showing manufacturing intentions hitting a nine-month low?

GDP growth for this year could fall short of Beijing’s target of 7.5 per cent, which would be a two-decade low. At one extreme, bears foresee a long-anticipated collapse while others feel that a more benign landing is underway. Some argue for letting this cycle play itself out, rather than risk incurring distortions from another stimulus. Yet another group is focused on long-standing concerns about rebalancing the economy.

Sorting through this morass of advice, one is reminded that China’s slowdown is a mix between a longer-term structural transition and a frenetic cycle of expand-contract-expand policies in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.

Apple vs. Samsung

Apple Inc. on Monday gave a federal judge a list of eight Samsung Electronics Co. products it wants pulled from shelves and banned from the U.S. market, including popular Galaxy model smartphones.

U.S. District Judge Lucy Koh asked for the list after a jury in San Jose last week slammed Samsung with a $1.05 billion verdict, finding that the South Korean technology giant had "willfully" copied Apple's iPhone and iPad in creating and marketing the products. Samsung plans an appeal.

The products Apple wants out are all smartphones: Galaxy S 4G, Galaxy S2 AT&T, Galaxy S2, Galaxy S2 T-Mobile, Galaxy S2 Epic 4G, Galaxy S Showcase, Droid Charge and Galaxy Prevail.

Koh on June 26 banned the Galaxy Tab 10.1 from the U.S. market after finding it likely violated a "design patent." Samsung is now asking for that ban to be lifted after the jury found the computer tablet didn't infringe that particular patent, but it did find it infringed three Apple's software patents that cover the popular "bounce-back" and pinch-to-zoom features.

The judge has scheduled a Sept. 20 hearing to discuss Apple's demands for the sales bans. She asked Apple on Friday to submit the list of products its wants removed from U.S. stores after Samsung complained that it doesn't have enough time to prepare for the scheduled hearing.

The judge is deciding whether to reschedule the hearing to give Samsung more time to prepare. Samsung plans to ask the judge to toss out the jury's verdict as unsupported by the evidence. Failing that, the company says it will appeal the verdict to higher courts, including the U.S. Supreme Court.

In addition to the sales bans, Apple also plans to ask the judge to triple the damages to $3.15 billion because of the jury's finding that Samsung "willfully" copied Apple.

The Banks

Congress, lobbyists and editorial writers have been engaged in an intense debate over how to provide effective governance for the US banking system in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and, more recently, JPMorgan Chase's billion-dollar derivatives losses. It is a complex subject and, not surprisingly, the language has been at times as opaque as the derivatives themselves - and the inability of the public to understand the system is contributing to a decline in trust and confidence. I believe the real solution lies in formulating a simpler, not a more complex, set of regulations.